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Waiting on weather

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday released its Weekly Export Sales report. Soybean exports totalled 164,800 metric tonnes, down 40% from the previous week and five-percent from the prior four-week average.

AUDIO: Brian Grossman, Zaner Group

Brian Grossman, market strategist for Zaner Group, says the U.S. dollar and Brazilian real have had a major impact on recent soybean exports.

“They’re going in opposite directions, and it’s making the Brazilian soybeans much more price palatable to the global market,” Grossman said. “Plus, Brazil is coming out of their harvest and it looks like it’s going to be another record crop for them, so there’s a lot of bushels available.”

Grossman encourages soybean growers to remain optimistic, despite the drastic decline.

“We have a long growing season infront of us and we still have issues in Argentina that are going to limit – to some extent – how much competition South America can have. Looking at weather forecast, we have a blip of heat coming, but other than that – we have a very ideal forecast for growing conditions,” Grossman said.

Grossman anticipates the futures market to remain under pressure until weather premium is added and trade rhetoric has passed. In the meantime, he encourages growers to “wait and see.”

“I know there are a lot of guys that didn’t get enough bushels, that they were hoping too, sold. I don’t believe this is the time to be panicking, running out and making those sales, especially now after the selloff we had. But, it does give us a great reminder as to how quickly these markets are willing to selloff,” Grossman said. “When the opportunities are present, we need to be taking advantage of them.”

Brian Grossman can be reached at (312) 277-0119 or bgrossman@zaner.com.

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