An agricultural commodity brokerage and analysis firm compiled data, in preparation for the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports, to be released later this month. The firm released its survey results, which suggest an increase in corn production.
AUDIO: Greg McBride, Allendale, Inc.
Allendale, Inc. today released its estimates for the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report. Greg McBride, commodities broker with Allendale, Inc., says their results align with USDA’s forecast.
“Our numbers came in with an increase of 2.3 million acres on corn – at 91.475 (million acres). That’s slightly lower than the 92 suggested at USDA’s Ag Forum. Beans came in at 4.9 million acres lower than last year, at 84.263. (That’s) about ¾ of a million acres lower than (what was suggested at) the Ag Forum,” McBride said. “Then wheat came in a little lower than last year, but slightly higher than what was suggested at the Ag Forum. We’re at 47.414.”
McBride says most producers plan on sticking with their rotations. However, producers in “friend states,” such as Kansas and North Dakota will shift planting intentions, due to low soybean prices. McBride believe this data will help farmers make cash sales and market 2019 crops.
“It helps them get an idea of, ‘I’m in the majority of people, where I’m going slightly heavier on corn’ or ‘I’m sticking with my rotation, and just so happens I’m slightly heavier on corn.’ It also helps them understand we’re going to have a big corn crop, but it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re going to completely change where we’re going to go on production,” McBride said.
Allendale’s implied production for corn sits at 14.851 billion. If realized, 2019 corn production would be the second highest on record. McBride notes additional corn acres won’t impact ending stocks. However, U.S. producers will still face large stocks of soybeans, despite a lowered acreage.
McBride encourages producers to closely watch for USDA reports, as well as trade news
“At this point, we have to keep our eyes on USDA numbers, now that we’re getting them on a regular basis. Then pay attention to the numbers and ideas being thrown out by the Chinese trade negotiators,” McBride said. “Once we get closer to a deal, that’s going to help push us along as we start to get firm numbers on the type of demand we’ll see coming out of China.”