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Prospective Plantings report motivates market

Photo courtesy of Scott Bauer, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture

AUDIO: Brian Grossman, Zaner Group

Thursday marked a big day for the grain market. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. A market strategist breaks down the two reports and discusses their impact on the market.

Brian Grossman, market strategist with Zaner Group, says the USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings report brought some surprise to the grain market.

“Corn – surprisingly lower, at 88 on the nose. Soybeans – very surprisingly lower, at 88.98. Call it 89 million, but still a far cry from the 91.05 million the market was looking for. Wheat came in strong, roughly a million above what the market was looking for,” Grossman said.

Grossman says the grain market reacted emotionally to Prospective Plantings on Thursday, with May corn up 14 ¾ and beans up 30 ½. He notes markets reacted bearishly to the USDA-NASS Quarterly Grain Stocks report due to higher than expected numbers.

“Corn estimates – the average trade was looking for stocks at 8.7 billion, which would be a new record in and of its own. However, it came in at 8.88 billion which is above the highest trade estimate. Soybeans also coming in pretty strong. Average trade looking for a 2.03 and it came in at 2.107, just below the highest estimate,” Grossman said.

Grossman expects the United States to maintain large grain inventories, possibly above USDA-NASS forecasts. He backs his theory by citing no significant increase in demand throughout the next two quarters.

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