The forecast pattern looks more active this morning, and we are making some changes to our forecast going forward from this weekend. The changes do not bode well for getting back into the field for any significant harvest push.
Nearby, we have no changes to our forecast. It is chilly this morning as the coldest part of our air mass is here today. Rains are done, however clouds are still going to be a dominant feature. The end is in sight…our neighbors to the west (Indiana) should see more sun developing today. Our time is coming tomorrow. Winds will keep a very cool feel in over the state through the day, and we won’t rule out a bit of drizzle from time to time in east central parts of the state. Clouds break up overnight.
The partial clearing will lead to the potential for frost over a large part of Central Ohio tomorrow morning, with temps dipping into that 31-32 degree range tomorrow morning. But, we will see the sun help moderate those temps quickly. The sun will stay in control through Friday, and it will lead to some moderate drying. We just don’t think it will be enough.
The reason we think that way is that our next front still is on the way for Saturday. We are leaving rain totals alone this morning, looking for .1”-.9” over almost 100% of the state. Behind the front, as we have been talking about all week to this point, we will see another significant cold push, leading to potential frost over the state overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.
Next week will start dry with sunshine in control Monday and Tuesday. However, the next trough comes in quicker, and we see rains of .25”-6” over the state for next Wednesday. Behind that we are dry for a couple of days, and then our next wave arrives on the 4th, with precipitation potential of .1”-.5” over 80% of the state.
In the extended period, the next strong front to sweep out of the plains and through the Corn Belt may arrive here closer to the 9th. The system could bring up to .75” to the state. If that timing holds, that 4 day period in-between systems may end up being the largest potential window we have. However, the trend of the pattern here recently is to speed up systems as the move out of the far extended window into a nearby period.
So, fast moving, closely spaced systems with colder air and plentiful moisture mean that we will have trouble getting harvest ramped back up as we move from October into November. A nice summation is this 10 day cumulative precipitation map…most of this comes in spurts every 2-3 days! We also will see our growing season come to a complete end before the first full weekend of November is complete…and likely sooner.