No change in this great weather for the balance of the week and weekend. Dry weather holds through Sunday with slowly climbing temps, strong southwest winds and excellent dry down conditions. Morning dew should be lighter over the next few mornings too, meaning we should be able to be in the field faster.
Our next front is still on the way for Monday. This still is the slower moving front we explained yesterday. Rain totals still look good at .25”-1” over nearly all of the state in our analysis this morning. Some models have swung back to a solution that has a second, stronger wave of moisture coming up as the front encounters the mountains off to the east. We think the moisture is overdone, and we are not convinced that the second wave approach is even right. It is a scenario we are looking closely at, but for now, we will sit with rains up to 1” and have everything done by midnight Monday night. Lingering clouds, poor drying and an overall damp feel will hold through Tuesday and likely Wednesday on the backside of the front, but we are downplaying the threat of addition al rain or strong thunderstorms. Just a heads up, though…you may hear others start to push that thought. The map above shows total precipitation potential through Tuesday morning.
Drier weather is in for the last half of the week and the weekend. In fact, we see strong high pressure building in over the eastern US all the way through the extended period. The high looks impressively strong, and likely erodes the next front moving across the Corn Belt at month-end. Rains fall over IA and IL, but do not make it into IN or OH now. So, we seen increased potential for a completely dry 11-16 day forecast window too, taking us through the first few days of November. If the high in the east weakens, that western front still can make life interesting here and bring some moisture, but the chances seem significantly lower this morning, based on the pattern we see developing after this weekend/early next week front.
Temperatures next week will be closer to normal, but we do not see much below normal air moving in over the rest of the month.