No complaints here at midweek. We have dry weather on the docket again today, and more is on the way. Warmer starting to assert itself too, thanks to strong south and southwest winds that started cranking up yesterday. Now, all of this should not come as any kind of surprise, since we have been talking about this set up going back into last week. Sun dominates today through the weekend, evaporation rates have maxed out and with these winds, we have excellent drying forecast through the weekend.
However, if you caught our final above statement, you should be clued in that we are making some changes to the forecast early next week, and they center around our next system’s arrival. That front looks to be moving sufficiently slower this morning to make changes to our forecast, and that may not be the most ideal set of circumstances for us. A slower front allows more moisture to draw up off of the Gulf of Mexico. That could lead to higher rain potential here. Now, if you are looking for the silver lining…the good news is that the slower front means we have no threat of rain at all here on Sunday. In addition, strong southwest winds will continue ahead of that front, so windy, warm and dry weather means you should keep combines going full tilt Sunday, and we likely don’t even see much of a dew overnight Saturday night into Sunday. Rains develop in NW Ohio early Monday morning, and then spread across the rest of the state through the day. Rains can be heavy in spots, thanks to thunderstorm development that seems likely at this time. We are raising rain totals for this system Monday to .25”-1” with coverage at 90%. It would have been better if this front were to follow its original course and just rip through. We likely would have seen significantly less rain. The map above shows rain totals through Monday night.
We also know this front is stronger thanks to the characteristics of the air coming in behind it. The air mass on the backside is cool for Monday night, Tuesday and even into Wednesday. Because of that we think there is a good chance that clouds hold over the state through midweek. Some models are suggesting a damp feel with spits and sprinkles in there, but we are not looking for any additional precipitation behind the stronger front at this time. WE do think that conditions will not be conducive to good drying before Thursday, even without new precipitation. Full sunshine finally returns Thursday through next Saturday, and that will be where we get our warmth to build, and drying to step up.
The extended pattern looks cooler as well, particularly at month end, when our next front is likely to move through. That front brings .25”-.75” to most of the state the 30th but should be gone before Halloween night. A second upper level wave moves through the great lakes around November 1st, with a few hundredths to .25” of moisture potential. That system looks like more of a product of colder air than anything else. But, this late extended period forecast is subject to change, perhaps more than normal. Why? Well, we are expecting another tropical system to be churning off the southeast US coast around the same time. Where it goes, what it does and it’s strength will be key, as larger storms generally tend to slow and disrupt the flow pattern across the US, sometimes back into even the corn belt. Stay tuned.