Flooding in Nebraska has been extensive and painful for farmers, ranchers and confined livestock producers. However, early estimates of cattle loss are now considered inflated compared to what is now being assessed. This is not to diminish the incredible destruction, but news corrects itself to move toward reality and not perception.
Early reports coming in from Nebraska have estimated recent flooding has caused the loss of 700,000, maybe even a million head of cattle. Randy Blach, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the market analysis arm of the beef industry CattleFax, says those numbers are probably a bit exaggerated, and the Nebraska Department of Agriculture seems to concur. Overall though, Blach says this situation will not have an impact on the market.
?It?s been difficult on our cow/calf producers, on our feed yards?infrastructure has been washed away in many cases. It?s going to take months to get back to normal. It?s a severe deal,? Blach said. ?I don?t know how many animals have been lost, but I can say the number of animals lost has been devastating to individual producers. But for the industry in total, it?s not a significant number.?
Blach again contends the market as a whole should not feel much, if any impact from this situation. But he says in Nebraska there are issues developing, which are rapidly affecting the performance of the markets locally. According to Blach, weights have quickly fallen as much as 100 lbs. lighter than they were forecast to be.
While CattleFax has not yet released an official headcount of cattle lost, their best guess is the actual number is most likely closer to 100,000 head, and perhaps even less than that. However, the report published on the CattleFax website and authored by analyst Lance Zimmerman notes specifically – this is only an educated guess and subject to future revision.
Blach turned his attention to the threat of African Swine Fever (ASF) to China?s swine herd. Those numbers will impact a number of markets.
“China’s pork production makes up 20-percent of total world animal protein. The reduction caused by ASF will have an impact that will last for years.”
Ron Hays from the Radio Oklahoma Network allowed the use of this interview with CattleFax.
