Grain markets are keeping a close eye on the upcoming WASDE Report that’s set to be released by the USDA at 11 a.m. Central Time on Friday.
The report is released monthly, and provides annual forecasts for supply and use of U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton. The report also covers U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk, as well as Mexico’s supply and use of sugar. AgMarket.Net branch manager Jim McCormick provides of a preview of what’s expected on the report.
“This is going to be an old crop balance sheet adjustment,” McCormick said. “They are going to take the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers they got last week, they are going to look at the exports and they are going to make some revisions. Right now, the government is guessing the carryout at about 1.5 billion bushels of corn. The average trade guess is about 1.38 billion bushels of corn. Our group is a little lower than that. If you get that carryout down to 1.3 or 1.35, that could push this market right back up to the highs made after the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. The bean carryout is going to be more interesting to see how they handle that. 120 is the carryout number and 118 is the average guess because the reality is this folks, we have sold too much beans to China and they are probably going to raise that export number, but they are just more than likely going to offset it by importing beans from Brazil.”
But as Bill Moore of Price Futures Group notes, you just never know what you’re going to get on these USDA reports.
“They have been reluctant – the USDA – to raise these exports to where I think they should,” Moore said. “You just never know. They normally tend to a negative report. That’s been their thing over the years, but then they come out with the bullish shocker last week. You just really don’t know on these reports, but I do know that there has been no demand rationing. The stocks are down to 5 or 6 year lows and it puts the premium on the U.S. crop this year.”
Stay tuned to iowaagnet.com on Friday for a full recap of the April WASDE Report.