Home Ken's Commentaries Ken's Commentary – 8/2: Bad News Begins For 2012 Crop Yields

Ken's Commentary – 8/2: Bad News Begins For 2012 Crop Yields

Reality is sometimes hard to accept. We’ve had so many crops that have been “lost” and then “saved” that this year we expect this lost crop to miraculously rise up and fill the bins this fall. It appears that won’t be the case. The advanced season, brought on by an early spring and very hot weather, assures the corn crop is not going to improve and may only decline in quantity and quality all the way to harvest.

F.C. Stone’s August crop estimates, released yesterday, were sobering (or occasion to end sobriety and begin drowning sorrows) with states down 30 to 40 percent on yields. We always think of the three “I” states as the best yields but this year it was the “Irrigated” state of Nebraska that kept pumping water and has the highest overall yield of 138 bushels per acre. Iowa is pegged at 136, Illinois at 110 and Indiana at 98. This is a drought of epic proportions, if these numbers are accurate.

We’ll go through another week of reports with Informa numbers on Friday and USDA’s August estimate next Friday, August 10.

Soybeans have August to make something of themselves, and there’s talk that the weather patterns are changing. I wouldn’t sell them down the dry creek bed yet, but the crop is down about 15-20 percent in the FC Stone estimate.

Today, you can watch C-Span from 11:00 until 12:00 noon CDT to see the entire debate of the House of Representatives Supplemental Disaster Bill. It won’t have any amendments, and only one hour for discussion before voting. The bill is disliked by most, but it’s likely to pass because House members need something to take home as they all run for re-election. This is a “nubbin” in agricultural terms but better than “nothing” for livestock producers. Whether the five year farm bill will get any floor time is anyone’s guess, but it’s not likely before December (quack, limp, quack).