Low crop prices and poor growing conditions are on the forefront of all agriculturalists minds as they reflect on the planting and growing seasons this year has provided. As the cooler seasons approach, many are concerned with how the 2019 crops will fare-out.
The Coalition for Iowa’s Farmers Start Smart panel, at the Iowa State Fair hosted many speakers, including Naomi Blohm, Senior Market Advisor at Stewart-Peterson. During the panel, the speakers talked over this years market–following the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) August 1st reports–as well as the growing season.
On the current markets and latest reports, Blohm shared her forecast for the remainder of the year.
“With the production number that we got from the USDA, the yield number is high and should come down. The acreage number was a surprise on the report for many. The acreage number could continue to be adjusted going forward in the September, October, November reports based on just updated FSA data. I would say that, in my opinion, this is the most bearish report we’re going to get for the remainder of 2019. And we should be able to find our harvest low on these numbers in the coming weeks,” the Senior Market Advisor shared.
As for reserves and crop rollover, Naomi has a few suggestions.
“Just to have protection for risk management on both sides of the scenario. Obviously, the outlook continues to be friendlier going forward because of our yield uncertainty. That’s a huge piece of the puzzle. Yet, at the same time, any rallies that we do see, we know can be taken away from us quickly. So, to always have a balanced approached with marketing. Buying puts underneath the market gives you a really nice safety net, it’s there for price protection. You can’t always outguess what this market is going to do, so being able to see both sides as we’re going forward,” said Blohm.
Blohm also touched on weather, stating the the coming fall could provide more than what farmers have bargained for.
“Of course, as the combines get rolling we’ll find out what’s out there. But, were still at risk for early frost. Based on numerous weather gurus that are out there, they’re saying that this is the year that we’re actually, just the historical odds, this is the year that it could actually come to furbish. And if that happens, we’re in trouble; this marketplace is in trouble,” said Blohm.