WEST DES MOINES, Iowa – China’s soybean imports are beginning to get backlogged, as the corn trade reels from the Monday World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. Today’s analyst is U.S. Commodities, Inc. founder Don Roose.
The corn market’s trying to have a technical rebound after yesterday’s selloff after the WASDE report. It increased the world ending stocks just enough to make a difference, and on the break we’re seeing a lack of cash movement, so the market’s just balancing back here a little bit. More of a technical short covering than anything else today.
The soybean market continues to come under pressure from followthrough after yesterday’s big selloff after the WASDE report, which failed to lower the ending stocks on soybeans as much as the trade had thought.
The other thing that continues to dominate the market is rumors, and China washing out some 15-20 cargoes of Brazil soybeans, so I think what we’re starting to say is they’re backlogged – the soybean imports in China – and we’re starting to see, you know, a crack in the wall, as far as the imports slowing down from China.
The dominant issue we’re seeing in the cash market is the cash market looks like it’s going to trade steady to maybe $1 lower this week, after trading lower last week. The box beef has moved back up into close to historical highs again; the last time we were up at this area, we had a hard time selling beef, so I think buyer beware here, just in case we see the demand back off a little bit, so that’s a concern for the market, and we’re just a little bit lower.
Hog market continues to be an amazing trade. We’ve had a sharp rally. A huge [porcine epidemic diarrhea virus] premium is dialed into those summer months. It’s hard to say, but some kind of a range of a 5%-15% drop in overall production during the summer is dialed in. Now we’re going to see if that actually occurs and we’re also going to see if the consumer is willing to buy pork at these sharply higher values as we move into the summer.