DES MOINES, Iowa – Believe it or not, this spring has been cooler than usual, thanks largely to temperatures in March and April.
That’s according to State Climatologist Harry Hillaker, who also points out that temperatures in the last week of May were between 7 and 10 degrees above normal, with warmer weather in the forecast. Precipitation-wise, he adds that the spring has been fairly typical, but can any of that be used to make an educated guess on what to expect this year?
Hillaker says not really. However he does point out there are two ways to form a general outlook, starting with historical examples of years that began like 2014.
“We look at years that start off very cold,” says Hillaker. “Of course we had a ridiculous winter this past winter that didn’t seem to want to end. We look at other years that start off that way, and there’s a bit of a tendency, [though] not absolute by any means, that the summer and especially the summer following those kinds of winters, there’s a little bit of a tendency to be on the cooler side of usual. And not much indication precipitation wise in those sort of situations.”
The other indication of what to expect in Iowa this year actually starts with water temperatures off the Pacific Coast of South America, more commonly called El Ni?o.
“We’ve got El Ni?o seemly on the way,” Hillaker says, “and that somewhat favors the same thing: a bit on the cooler side of summer for us. Also, somewhat on the wetter side of usual.”
Hillaker says that corroborates with the latest outlook for the summer months from the National Weather Service, which puts Iowa on the cooler and wetter side of usual. He says the odds aren’t great on either one, but there is a slight tendency toward both. That, he says, is a significant contrast to recent summers, in particular in the area of precipitation.
