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China still absent from U.S. soybean market

Source: Wikimedia Commons

United States grain exports saw a noticeable increase this week. A market analyst breaks down the report and talks about what to expect from next week’s trade.

Government data indicates United States grain exports are behind the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s goal. However, corn and soybean exports made great strides this past week. Zaner Ag Hedge market strategist Brian Grossman says both commodities came in above, or close to above analyst’s expectations.

“Corn (was) above the highest estimate of the average trade, at 1.77 million metric tonnes. We were looking for 887,000 to keep us on pace, to get to USDA’s forecast,” Grossman said. “Soybeans came in good, given conditions, at 890,000 metric tonnes. That was near the upper end of the range. Soy meal (was) pretty decent, just shy of 300,000.”

China did not purchase United States soy products this week. They did request for a very minor cancellation. Argentina, however, picked up a significant amount of United States soybeans, as they serve as a market arbitrage.

“Argentina came in as the biggest new sale and biggest delivery point for the week,” Grossman said. “They took delivery on 214,000 metric tonnes, while buying another 170,000. We all know the story there. Argentina is shipping their domestic soybeans to China, while crushing U.S. soybeans for their domestic needs.”

Heading into the new work week, the market will remain “extremely trade sensitive.”

“Yesterday (Thursday), the stock market was extremely volatile, off of an arrest of a Chinese official. That story isn’t going to go away anytime soon,” Grossman said. “If there’s any kind of concern or thought that the trade truce is falling apart, soybeans are quickly going to become a victim of sellers.”