Normally, having a long-term forecast that calls for dry conditions through harvest is welcomed news. However, this year much of the Western hemisphere has seen abnormally dry conditions. Our Northern neighbors in Canada have arguably had it worse than most this year. They saw days where their summer temperatures were hotter than Phoenix, Arizona. It wasn’t because Phoenix was having a cold snap, it was just that hot in Canada. By adding in this dry forecast for harvest, it highlights the stresses they have seen all year.
Stats Canada has released their latest predictions for the Canadian grain, oilseed, and pulse crop harvest. While it is good news that farmers up north will have plenty of time to get their crops out, the numbers will be quite small. Meteorologist Bret Anderson says the deck is just stacked against them going into September and October.
Stats Canada says that the wheat crop could be down by as much as 35% from 2020. Durum will be approximately 40% lower, and the canola harvest will be the lowest they have seen in nearly a decade. Field peas will see a loss of 43% in production and lentils will be about 31% lower.
The only bright spot they are hoping to see will be in corn. The conditions in Ontario were much better than in the western provinces, and summer-like conditions will continue to favor corn in the southern regions of the country. The Great Lakes have been warmer than normal this year, and that is controlling the weather patterns in that area.
If the drought wasn’t enough for the grains we already mentioned, the soybeans suffered from the opposite effects. Their regions saw abnormal amounts of water. That means they will also be looking at yield drops in the neighborhood of 10%.
For Canadian farmers, when it rains, it pours. Except when it doesn’t.