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Can the United States satisfy export demand?

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The United States Department of Agriculture on Monday released it’s export inspections report. Inspections for corn exports came in slightly above 1.9 million metric tonnes, at 1,916,461.

Zaner Group market strategist Brian Grossman says corn export inspections are shifting in the right direction. However, Grossman is worried recent soybean inspections.

“We’re making great strides of getting on target, to catch up to where USDA thinks we should be at the end of the year for (corn) exports,” Grossman said. “Soybeans coming in at 533,000. Not bad, but not great either. We should be around 700,000 each week to meet the USDA target. If it’s one week down, not so bad. But, we’re seeing a bit of a repetition on sales not meeting the weekly quotas.”

Grossman says the decline in soybean export inspections is due to a shift in buying habits.

“We’re more in a timeframe where a lot of people go to South America and start shopping for soybeans there,” Grossman said. “Yes, Argentina has had their problems, but they’re not running out of soybeans. There’s still plenty of beans available for people. For now, South America just has the edge.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has strong demand expectations for grain exports, as outlined its annual Outlook Forum. Grossman says growers should be concerned about inspections not meeting demand.

“Adding more bushels to the balance sheet, we’re likely going to be putting some pressure on the soybean market – especially if South America has a big enough crop that they can pick up the extra business. If they fall short like this year, we won’t be able to feel the effects as much,” Grossman said. “(To) have both Brazil and Argentina crank out a record crop a year down the road, it’s going to be hard for soybeans to extend a rally beyond the level we’re already at. The one thing about that, beans (have been) under pressure here lately. …we need every demand we can get.”

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