During our stay at the Iowa State Fair, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) released the August 2019 report. The anticipation for this report caused much dismay for farmers, as many have expressed concern for this years harvest. After the report was released, swarms of questions filled with worry made their way to the Iowa Agribusiness Radio Network booth. Understanding for some of these questions could be found at the Start Smart program through speaker Sue Martin, Ag and Investment Services CEO and President.
Broker Sue Martin shared her initial take, following the August 12th WASDE report.
“Well, when I look at corn, the yield being raised up to 169.5, that’s down just shy of seven bushel to the acre from last years good yield. That to me seems rather high. If you compare to late planted years similar to this one–that would be 1983 and 1995–yields declined in, I believe it was ‘93 and ‘95, ten percent each, atleast, and in ‘83 they were down 21 percent. I have to believe that the yields aren’t going to be 169.5. I think that the yields will be declining as we go further in. It’s just, this year, we haven’t had the heat, and that’s probably been a blessing for even those areas that are so far behind,” shared Martin.
Sue has a few thoughts for those perturbed by the state of their storages.
“I think that, if they’re looking at the new crop, the biggest concern is will they get it home. Will they get it [new crop] matured in a normal fashion because of the lateness. If they’re looking at the old crop they haven’t sold, then they’ve probably missed one of their better chances for this year. It just depends on how much they have in the bins at home, and if they have enough storage to handle this years crop on top of that,” said the broker.
The businesswoman also provided predictions for the coming basis.
“I think the basis will be as good as it was this year, and comparable, but the only way you’re going to get that is to have the crop. Normally you would say go ahead and sell it and buy back on the board, but this year it’s going to be difficult to get that basis if you do sell it. So, that’s the one thing. But I also would not do that unless you puts flooring that crop for price,” shared Sue.