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Analysts await estimates from USDA Outlook Conference

Photo by Ben Nuelle

Grain markets have been processing the same news for several weeks now. An analyst believes crop production estimates might spark some activity in the markets.

Grain markets will reopen Monday evening, following the observance of President’s Day. Brian Grossman, market strategist with Zaner Ag Hedge, says analysts will shift their attention to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Outlook Forum at the start of Tuesday’s session.

“Once the day session gets rolling, a lot of attention is going to be turning to the USDA Outlook Conference,” Grossman said. “While these numbers are by no means exact, it is the first semi-official look at what the USDA is thinking for next year.”

Overall, analysts expect to see increased corn acreage and decreased soybean acreage.

“We are estimating 91.4 million acres of corn, and thinking they’re going with a high yield. Our estimate is 177.2. Soybeans – 86.1 million acres and 52 on the yield. But, we’ll find out what they’re thinking next week,” Grossman said.

Grossman believes the first glance at spring production could bring grain markets out of the winter doldrums.

“It could be a bit supportive to the soybean market, if we see a low number or even a wildly low number. But, (it’s) hard to say what the USDA is considering/thinking. This is the first look and by no means (is) the final answer; not even close to what we’ll see for numbers on the Prospective Planting report later,” Grossman said.

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