African Swine Fever virus transforms global market

by | May 27, 2019 | 5 Ag Stories, News

Experts believe, ?African Swine Fever is a long-term global issue.?

Animal industry experts met in Kansas City, Missouri for the U.S. Meat Export Federation Spring Conference. A panel discussion on foreign animal disease examined the long-term impact of African Swine Fever (ASF) on the global pork supply.

Dr. Dave Pyburn, National Pork Board senior vice president of science and technology, believes the African Swine Fever virus is one of the most devastating diseases to date.

?This current strain of African Swine Fever is the same across Russia, the Baltics, eastern and western Europe, and now Asia. Within 10 minutes of individual animal infection, the animal?s dead. Then you look at large units getting infected, about 80-percent to more than 80-percent are going to die from the virus,? Dr. Pyburn said.

Joel Haggard, USMEF senior vice president in the Asia Pacific region, calls attention to the difficulties in receiving credible data on the outbreaks. While it has been hard to define the overall impact, China?s Ministry of Agriculture reports a 20-percent drop in pork production.

?It?s very difficult to get information. The latest statistics presented (showed) there?s 25-million producers in China,? Haggard said. ?What we?re concentrating on is the import side. That?s a little more transparent because we have the statistics, although delayed. (We?re) also trying to find any tidbits about what?s happening on the consumption side.?

A recent survey suggests roughly 20-percent of Chinese consumers are eating little to no pork due to the outbreak. Erin Borrer, USMEF economist, says the deadly virus could permanently change the Chinese market.

?We thought that Chinese consumption would continue to diversify. As income grows, they are going to consume more beef, sheep and seafood. I think this ASF situation could exacerbate that. Chinese consumption of pork will rebound after this, but this is a long-term game. The ability to rebound after ASF could likely take a while. We?re looking at possibly a permanent transformation of Chinese consumption,? Borrer said.