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AFBF releases economic analysis of TPP

by Ben Nuelle

American Farm Bureau Federation releases economic analysis on how the Trans Pacific Partnership will boost net farm income. AFBF President Zippy Duvall and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack spoke Tuesday about how the United States needs act quickly on TPP.

Duvall says ratifying TPP will boost annual net farm income in the United States by $4.4 billion, compared to not approving the pact.

“America needs to take the lead. We need to be the leader of the world putting up these trade treaties and getting our credibility out there. Tell everyone if we agree to something were going to come through with it and deliver it. The timeliness of [TTP] is critical for agriculture because every day goes by we fall farther and farther behind and these numbers get smaller and smaller. While there is already countries who have signed the agreement and trading, were coming to the dance late,” Duvall says.

AFBF’s analysis forecasts farm-price increases for corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. While cotton prices are not projected to change, cash receipts are projected to increase by $21 million. Net trade is expected to increase for rice, cotton, beef, pork, poultry, butter, cheese, soybeans and non-fat dry milk.

USDA Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says this agreement will knock down trade barriers.

“What has stopped us from having access to these markets is the unfair barriers in the form of tariffs or Sanitary and Phytosanitary Rules that make it difficult for us to access markets. This agreement deals with both. It reduces tariffs or eliminates tariffs and that is reflected in the farm bureau report in terms of expanded export opportunity. It also creates a commitment on the part of the signatories to this agreement that SPS issues will be dealt in a science-based objective way not based on politics,” Vilsack says.

While the AFBF analysis projects that the net trade for corn will decline by 45 million bushels, overall demand and use for corn is forecast to increase by 54 million bushels.

Corn revenues are expected to rise by $680 million per year and prices are projected to rise by 5 cents per bushel, due to higher domestic feed use from additional beef and pork exports created by TPP.