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A Big Crop: Hold or Sell?

by Ken Root & Whitney Flach

Listen Here: Agribusiness Matters 10-18-16

A University of Illinois Ag Economist says selling soybeans now may not be the best approach. Dr. Darrel Good suggests waiting to see what is going on in South America while holding as much of the crop as you can.

Good, addresses the question on computing price. Whether the 4.3 billion bushel October Crop Report is right. Dr. Good says it may get bigger. “I think taking all the evidence together seeing now that we got bigger in September and October. I think it would point to another small increase in the yield forecast in November, and perhaps in January as well.”

However, even in the face of a record crop, the price of soybeans has remained fairly strong. If possible, farmers should be a little patient as they contemplate when to sell. It might be worth waiting to see how the South American crop unfolds. If it comes down to selling corn or soybeans Good recommends, “If I had to choose selling one or the other I would still be a seller of soybeans because of the returns that the current price is offering.”

For reference USDA has established, this month, the expected mid-point national cash price received for soybeans by farmers from now until next fall at $9.05, with corn at $3.25 and wheat at $3.70.

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